2023 Research and Study
- NEWCommentary
- publication date:2026/03/31
“Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective（9）” Russia Balancing Between the United States and Iran
MEIJ Commentary No.20
“Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective （9）”
Following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, and Iran’s subsequent retaliatory strikes, tensions in the Middle East have escalated further. In response to these developments, this commentary series, titled Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective, brings together analyses by members of the study group, each examining the current situation from the standpoint of their own regional and disciplinary expertise, while considering its background and implications.
Russia Balancing Between the United States and Iran
Mizuki CHUMAN,
ROTOBO Institute of Russian & NIS Economic Studies, Senior researcher
※This article reflects the author's personal views and does not represent the position of the affiliated organization.
Introduction
The attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel, which began on February 28, 2026, were ongoing at the time of writing this report (March 11). Given the rapidly evolving situation, it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions, nevertheless, this article summarizes the implications for Russia based on the actions and statements of senior officials during the ten days following the attacks.
Maintaining a Certain Distance from one of “friendly countries” Iran
The U.S.–Israel missile strikes resulted in the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia issued a statement on the same day, condemning the attack on Iran as “a deliberate, premeditated, and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state, in direct violation of the fundamental principles and norms of international law.” Furthermore, President Putin expressed condolences on March 1, the day after the strikes, stating, “Please, accept my deepest condolences on the assassination of Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Seyyed Ali Khamenei and members of his family, committed in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.” Russia had signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with Iran in January 2025 (which does not contain clauses for joint military action as an alliance), making it natural for Russia, as a friendly nation, to express condolences for Ayatollah Khamenei's death. However, the country remained cautious about expressing explicit support for Iran.
Instead, on March 2, President Putin held telephone talks with the leaders of the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia—countries that had been attacked by Iran. During his conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, he emphasized the need to resolve the extremely dangerous situation at hand via political and diplomatic means. While he did not directly criticize Iran, he demonstrated consideration for Middle Eastern nations.
It was only on March 6, a week after the attacks, that President Putin held a phone conversation with Iranian President Pezeshkian. President Putin expressed his principled stance: the immediate cessation of attacks, the abandonment of military means in resolving the issue, and a return to political and diplomatic solutions. The two leaders agreed to continue communicating with each other. Here too, while expressing solidarity with Iran, the Russian President avoided mentioning explicit support.
Effectively Utilizing Surging Oil and Gas Prices
Russia's cautious approach toward Iran may stem from its reluctance to further strain its relations with the U.S. President Putin held a telephone conversation with U.S. President Trump on March 9. After the call, President Trump, while not naming specific countries, promised to lift oil sanctions against “certain countries” to lower oil prices and to not reimpose them “if peace is restored”. On the day of the U.S.–Russia leaders' phone call, crude oil prices surged past $119 per barrel, reaching their highest level since 2022.
Meanwhile, Russia has already made clear its intention to leverage the unstable global energy situation arising from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. President Putin, who convened an emergency meeting on the global oil and gas market on March 9, mentioned the impact of heightened tensions in the Middle East and the risks to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. He touched on the possibility of temporary spikes in resource prices and told Russian energy companies to leverage this situation (with oil and gas prices surging due to Middle Eastern tensions) and use additional export revenues to repay debts. He further stated that Russia is prepared to cooperate if Europe provides long-term political stability, but if Europe “closes its doors to Russia,” it will be necessary to shift supplies to more attractive destinations, signaling a firm stance.
Even if the price surge proves to be temporary and yields only short-term gains, the view that this development benefits Russia is widely shared among both government officials and experts. Notably, India—previously seen as likely to reduce Russian crude imports due to its relationship with the U.S.—is now expected to expand its use of Russian oil again. Turkey, which receives Iranian gas, is also likely to increase its purchase of Russian gas.
Thus, the prevailing view is that the current situation involving Iran is in Russia's favor. The surge in resource prices will undoubtedly benefit the Russian economy. However, should the conflict evolve into a “U.S.–Israel versus Iran–Russia” dynamic, Russia would likely face significant disadvantages and would be unable to provide substantial support to Iran. Against this backdrop, it remains crucial to monitor Russia’s response moving forward. Furthermore, even as global attention shifts toward the Middle East, the trajectory of the Russia–Ukraine war warrants continued close observation.
(Completed March 11, 2026)
