2023 Research and Study
- NEWCommentary
- publication date:2026/03/31
“Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective（8）” From the Perspective of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Military Conflict
MEIJ Commentary No.19
“Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective （8）”
Following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, and Iran’s subsequent retaliatory strikes, tensions in the Middle East have escalated further. In response to these developments, this commentary series, titled Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective, brings together analyses by members of the study group, each examining the current situation from the standpoint of their own regional and disciplinary expertise, while considering its background and implications.
From the Perspective of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Military Conflict
Kenta AOKI,
Former Political Affairs Officer, United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan
Following large-scale attacks by the U.S. and Israel, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei, tensions in Iran have escalated, impacting the entire region. The background to these events and future prospects have been discussed in commentaries by other co-researchers. This article focuses on the military clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan that occurred concurrently with the escalation in Iran and examines their context and implications.
Pakistan carries out cross-border attacks into Afghanistan
The Pakistani military conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, southern Kandahar, and southeastern Paktika province in the early hours of February 27, 2026. This followed a series of security incidents within Pakistani territory, prompting its military to launch retaliatory cross-border attacks into Afghanistan’s eastern provinces of Nangarhar, Paktika, and Khost on February 21. On the 26th of the same month, the Taliban counterattacked, indicating that the exchange of attacks was gradually escalating.
On February 27, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif posted on his X account that his patience was wearing thin, stating the two countries were in a state of “open war.” Pakistan’s decision to take military action threatening Afghanistan’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity (including bombing the capital) underscores its dissatisfaction with the Taliban.
Pakistan claims that the Taliban is harboring armed groups, chief among whom is the Tahreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has caused security incidents within Pakistan, and demands that the Taliban remedy this issue. Under the Doha Agreement signed with the U.S., the Taliban had promised to not allow its territory to be used to harm other countries. From Pakistan’s perspective, this constitutes a violation of the international agreement.
The aspect as a proxy war between India and Pakistan
It is reasonable to attribute the factors underlying Pakistan’s recent cross-border attacks to Afghanistan’s inadequate counterterrorism measures, as mentioned earlier. Defense Minister Asif also stated in an interview with France 24 (February 18, 2026) that “India is waging a proxy war in cooperation with Afghanistan.” It is notable that a senior Pakistani military official expressed dissatisfaction with India in the Afghan context.
Since the Taliban regained effective control on August 15, 2021, the group has gradually grown more confident about its role as the dominant power within the country. Currently, there is no entity in Afghanistan that threatens the Taliban’s dominance.
Amid this, Pakistan has grown increasingly dissatisfied with the Taliban deepening its ties with India. Indeed, in October 2025, Taliban Acting Foreign Minister Mottaqi visited India, conducting a five-day diplomatic tour that included talks with Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar, clearly signaling a honeymoon phase in relations with India.
Historically, Afghanistan has always been buffeted by the interests of its major powers. It is natural to view Afghanistan’s excessive rapprochement with India as a reactionary move, effectively making it a proxy battleground in the India–Pakistan rivalry. In this sense, Pakistan’s military establishment may want to change not only the Taliban’s stance on counterterrorism but also its India-biased foreign policy.
Future Developments
The escalating tensions in Iran have also cast a shadow over the Afghanistan–Pakistan conflict. Since October 2025, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye have mediated ceasefire talks between the two nations. However, facing backlash from Iran, it is now difficult for Qatar and Saudi Arabia to redirect efforts toward easing the tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Given these constraints, Türkiye may emerge as a key player in easing tensions in Southwest Asia.
Pakistan has also signed a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia. Amid growing uncertainty and in light of Iran’s experience facing U.S.–Israel attacks, Saudi Arabia considers military cooperation with nuclear-armed Pakistan strategically important. For Pakistan, facing its own economic difficulties and strengthening military, political, and economic ties with Saudi Arabia are also of importance.
Considering this, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye could potentially increase their presence in Southwest Asia. The situation in Iran has had a profound impact not only on the Gulf but also on Southwest Asia.
(Completed at 11:00 AM Japan Standard Time, March 11, 2026)
Author’s Biography
Kenta Aoki is a Former Political Affairs Officer at the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. He earned a B.A. degree in Sociology at Sophia University and M.A. in Peace Studies from the University of Bradford, U.K. His research primarily focuses on the contemporary politics in Afghanistan and Iran. He worked in Afghanistan between 2005 and 2013 for 7 years with various institutions as a diplomat at Japanese Embassy, a technical advisor at UNDP/Afghan Ministry, and so on. His recent publications include The Resurgence of the Taliban: Contemporary History of Afghanistan in Turmoil (Iwanami Shoten: 2022, in Japanese), A Portrait of “Crossroads of Civilizations”: The True Face of Afghanistan (Kobunsha: 2023, in Japanese), and Reading the World from the Middle East/Eurasia (Iwanami Shoten: 2025, in Japanese, co-edited) among others.
