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• publication date:2026/03/31

“Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective（7）” Focusing on the Connection Between the War on Iran and the Situation in Gaza

MEIJ Commentary No.18

“Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective （7）”

Following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, and Iran’s subsequent retaliatory strikes, tensions in the Middle East have escalated further. In response to these developments, this commentary series, titled Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective, brings together analyses by members of the study group, each examining the current situation from the standpoint of their own regional and disciplinary expertise, while considering its background and implications.

 

Focusing on the Connection Between the War on Iran and the Situation in Gaza

Chie EZAKI,

National Defense Academy, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of International Relations, Associate Professor

 

Following the outbreak of the Gaza War in October 2023, direct military conflict erupted between Israel and Iran, culminating in the outbreak of a 12-day war (hereinafter referred to as the 12-Day War) in June 2025. During the war, Israel carried out targeted killings of the Iranian military and security officials, destroyed military facilities and nuclear-related sites, and inflicted significant damage on Iran. However, the Israeli public believed that as long as the Islamic regime in Iran persisted, the threat to Israel would not disappear, and that a conflict lasting merely 12 days was inadequate to resolve this.

This psychological backdrop within Israeli society also contributed to the recent attack. A poll presented by the Israel Democracy Institute on March 4, 2026 found that 97% of Jewish respondents supported the attack (war) against Iran.[1]

In light of the circumstances on the Israeli side, the defining feature of the February 28, 2026 attack on Iran was undoubtedly the first-time joint military operation conducted by Israel and the U.S. Their status as equal partners in the operation is also evident from U.S. President Trump’s statement that he and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would decide together when to end the war.[2]

During the 12-Day War, the U.S. limited its intervention to a unilateral attack on Iran's nuclear facilities at the war's conclusion. So why did Israel and the U.S. jointly attack Iran this time?

During both the 12-Day War and the recent attack on Iran, Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly urged President Trump to join the fight. However, some viewpoints suggest that Israel was uncertain until the last moment whether the U.S. would join the 12-Day War. Regarding the recent attack on Iran, Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly sought President Trump’s approval during his December 2025 visit to the U.S., stating that Israel planned to attack Iran soon. In other words, Israel's approach to these two attacks on Iran shows little change.

Therefore, it is highly likely that changes on the U.S. side were the catalyst behind the recent Israeli–U.S. attack on Iran. Specifically, the successful U.S. attack on Venezuela in early 2026 is seen as having boosted President Trump's confidence in “peace through strength”.[3] This perspective also explains U.S. actions during the 12-Day War. President Trump, known for favoring low-cost and flashy victories, likely saw little incentive to attack Iran until Israel demonstrated its ability to achieve success independently and he was confident of a U.S. victory.

A notable feature of this attack is that regime change in Iran was explicitly stated as its objective. Israel perceives Iran, with its radical Islamic regime, as a “state sponsor of terrorism” that supports groups such as Hamas. Iran also poses a threat through pursuit of nuclear development aimed at Israel's annihilation. During the 12-Day War, Israeli attacks focused on Iran's nuclear development facilities and experts. Although 30 military commanders and 19 nuclear scientists were targeted, religious figures who could influence the survival of Iran's political regime were ultimately excluded.[4]

During the current attack, Israel targeted Supreme Leader Khamenei in the first phase of its operation against Iran. Israel has indicated that it views this as an opportunity to weaken Iran's capabilities and has stated that it will not ease the attacks until the regime collapses. The U.S. supports this position.

Finally, it is worth noting that this was a preemptive strike. This is not unique to the current attack on Iran, but it represents a shift in Israel's approach following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 (hereafter referred to as the October 7).

Prior to the October 7, Israel's policy toward Hamas was characterized by a reactive stance, epitomized by the so-called “mowing strategy,” which involved responding with excessive force when problems arose. This approach stemmed from Israel's assessment that the threat posed by Hamas was diminishing. Before the October 7, when Israel could dismiss a Hamas attack on its territory as a fantasy, the cost of possible attacks would likely have been considered tolerable. However, following the October 7, Israel sought to thoroughly prevent the manifestation of such threats from ever materializing again. To this end, it resumed launching preemptive strikes.

Amidst this, there is concern that as international attention focuses on the situation in Iran, the Palestinian issue will be forgotten. Consequently, it seems that nothing can stop Israel from altering current state of affairs in terms of the Palestinian issue in its own favor. This may be considered the hidden purpose of the current attack on Iran.

Specifically, there is a risk that the Yellow Line, which demarcates areas from which Israeli forces withdrew under the October 2025 ceasefire agreement from areas where Israel maintains a presence, could become a permanent border separating Gaza and Israel. Progress in the second phase of the Gaza Peace Plan has stalled, making it difficult to create opportunities for further Israeli military withdrawal.

Similar circumstances can be observed in developments concerning the West Bank. This region comprises areas governed by the Palestinian Authority, established under peace agreements with Israel, as well as areas occupied by the Israeli military. Based on the peace agreements, the Israeli military has withdrawn from parts of the West Bank and returned these territories to Palestinian control. However, negotiations have stagnated for a long time, so the prospects of returning the territory to Palestinian control are dim. In areas under Israeli jurisdiction, the construction and expansion of Jewish settlements continues, accelerating Israel's de facto annexation of the territory. Attacks by Jewish settlers on Palestinians have also continued.

The war on Iran is part of the changing strategic environment in the Middle East triggered by the outbreak of the Gaza War. A blueprint for creating regional stability must consider these points.

 

 (Completed March 10, 2026)

 

 

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