2023 Research and Study
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- publication date:2026/03/31
“Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective (3)” The U.S.–Israel–Iran War from India's Perspective
MEIJ Commentary No.14
“Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective (3)”
Following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, and Iran’s subsequent retaliatory strikes, tensions in the Middle East have escalated further. In response to these developments, this commentary series, titled Surveying the Situation in Iran: A Middle East–Eurasia Perspective, brings together analyses by members of the study group, each examining the current situation from the standpoint of their own regional and disciplinary expertise, while considering its background and implications.
The U.S.–Israel–Iran War from India's Perspective
Ryohei KASAI,
Visiting Associate Professor, Center for South Asian Studies, Gifu Women's University
What stance has India taken regarding the U.S.–Israel attack on Iran that began on February 28 And what impact will this situation have on India?
On March 1, Prime Minister Modi held a telephone conversation with President Mohammed of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Although he did not name Iran directly, the Indian Prime Minister posted on Twitter that he strongly condemns the attacks on the UAE and expresses his condolences for the loss of life caused by these attacks, referring to Iran's targeting of the UAE in its retaliation. The situation in Iran was also discussed during a summit meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, who visited India on March 2. Prime Minister Modi said he was “deeply concerned” about the situation and called on “all countries involved to show restraint, avoid escalation, and prioritize the safety of civilians,” adding that “dialogue and diplomacy should be pursued to ease tensions and resolve the underlying issues.” (Briefing by Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Jaiswal, March 3).
India has not made any explicit reference to the U.S.–Israeli military operation. This is likely because the country does not want to worsen its relations with the U.S., nor can it afford to damage its ties with Israel, which have gotten stronger in recent years. Indeed, just two days before the attack, on February 26, Prime Minister Modi visited Israel as a state guest and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu).
Regarding Iran's retaliation, however, India has limited its response to condemning the attacks on the UAE. At the same time, India has maintained high-level relations with Iran, as evidenced by Foreign Minister Araghchi's visit to India in May 2025 and a planned second visit in mid-January 2026 (which was later canceled due to domestic developments in Iran). India is involved in the development and operation of Chabahar Port in eastern Iran and seeks to utilize it as a gateway to Central Asia and Afghanistan. Given the strategic importance of the port and its geopolitical benefits, India appears to have chosen not to issue a full condemnation.
Areas where the current situation could have concrete impacts on India include “energy,” “people,” and “capital.”
India relies on imports for approximately 80% of its crude oil consumption, sourcing approximately 55% from the Middle East. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India has imported large volumes of crude oil from Russia. However, following consultations with the Trump administration in the United States, which viewed these imports as problematic, import volumes have decreased significantly. While imports from the United States and Venezuela have been discussed as potential alternatives, imports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq have surged. Consequently, the impact of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unavoidable. Natural gas supplies from Qatar are already facing disruptions.
The Gulf region is also home to a large Indian diaspora. According to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs website, there are 35.42 million Indians living abroad worldwide (this figure includes both Non-Resident Indians, or NRIs, and Persons of Indian Origin, or PIOs, who have acquired citizenship in their host countries). While only about 10,000 reside in Iran, approximately 3.57 million are in the UAE, 2.46 million in Saudi Arabia, 840,000 in Qatar, and 1 million in Kuwait. Combined with other regional countries, there are approximately 8.9 million Indians across the Gulf region. This means that one in four overseas Indians resides in this area. Ensuring their safety is a priority for the Indian government.
Furthermore, the situation of Indians abroad in this region raises concerns about potential economic repercussions. Remittances sent to India from abroad in fiscal year 2024 reached approximately $135.5 billion. This represents approximately 3.4% of India's gross domestic product, a scale that cannot be ignored. About 40% of this is believed to originate from the Gulf region. During the 1991Gulf War, which was triggered by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, remittances from Indian migrant workers plummeted, triggering an economic crisis in India.
The longer the conflict between the United States/Israel and Iran continues, the more these economic and social risks are likely to intensify. It is essential to monitor future developments closely, including whether India will take diplomatic action.
(Written in March 5, 2026)
